Ireland’s voters prepare to wreak vengeance on their government

The Economist

FIANNA FAIL has been Ireland’s natural party of government ever since it swept into power under Eamon de Valera in 1932. It has been in office for three out of every four years since, and usually scoops at least 40% of the popular vote at elections. But this era of dominance may be coming to an end. A general election is likely in late March, once parliament has passed the tough budget measures needed to meet the terms of an €85 billion ($113 billion) bail-out agreed with the European Union and the IMF. Fianna Fail, which rules in coalition with the Green Party, faces electoral meltdown.


The election could prove a watershed event for Fianna Fail, transforming Ireland’s political landscape to the party’s detriment, just as the 1932 election did to its benefit. The prime minister, Brian Cowen (pictured), enjoys a public approval rating of just 14%. His party fares little better, with one recent poll finding just 17% of voters supporting the government. If that is reflected in the election result, Fianna Fail could lose up to half its seats. Rather like the country it has ruled since 1997, the party is deep in debt, which will make an effective election campaign hard to mount. Unsurprisingly, morale is low: two ministers have decided not to seek re-election.

The party’s two biggest failings in government have been the mismanagement of a property-induced economic boom followed by an underestimate of the scale of the bust and the losses incurred by Ireland’s banks, which had their liabilities guaranteed by the government. This has given the likely next government, a Fine Gael-led coalition with Labour, an ideal election platform. Mr Cowen’s best hope for minimising his party’s losses is to exploit tensions between the opposition parties. Fine Gael broadly accepts the terms of the EU-IMF bail-out, but Eamon Gilmore, the Labour leader, says he would seek their renegotiation. Most dismiss this as opportunism, but Mr Cowen will pounce on it.

Fine Gael and Labour will almost certainly win a huge majority at the election. Mr Gilmore, whose personal approval rating of 44% is nearly double that of Enda Kenny, his Fine Gael counterpart, is eyeing the prime minister’s job. Fine Gael, the bigger party, will resist this. But both parties have yet to recognise how much their room for manoeuvre in government will be limited by the terms of the EU-IMF rescue. Their inheritance will be the loss of economic sovereignty negotiated by their predecessors.